if you’re an international student dreaming about the us, the odds are the worst they’ve been in a decade.
new data shows f-1 rejections are at the highest level since like 2015.
and it’s not even close in some places—some countries are seeing over 90% of people get told no.
here’s what the numbers actually say and why this is happening.
the big number: 35% of people are getting rejected
basically, more than a third of all f-1 applications were refused in 2025.
it went from 31% in 2024 up to 35% now.
back in 2015, it was only 23%.
some other reports say it’s actually 41%… but whatever the number is, it’s the highest in ten years and it’s getting worse fast.
the real story is where you’re from
the global average doesn’t show the whole picture. rejections aren’t happening everywhere—they’re mostly hitting the global south.
africa: the whole continent has a 64% rejection rate.
somalia is at 91%.
sierra leone is 90%.
ghana hit 81%.
it’s like, almost everyone is getting rejected.
south asia: india used to be a huge source for students, but their rejection rate jumped from 36% to 61% in just two years.
nepal, bangladesh, and pakistan are all over 70%.
europe: meanwhile… europe is still at 9%.
it hasn’t really changed in ten years.
so if you’re from europe, you’re probably fine. if you’re from somalia? 91% chance of a “no.”
kinda crazy right?
why is this happening?
there are a few big reasons for the surge:
more entry bans: a new rule from early 2026 expanded bans from 19 countries to 39.
the “indefinite hold”: there’s a new policy to just hold applications from “high-risk” countries forever.
way more vetting: they’re looking at social media way more and even canceling sevis records.
no more “duration of status”: students only get 4 years now, not “as long as you’re in school.”
honestly, it feels like where you’re born matters more than your grades or your money now.
what this means for students and schools
this isn’t just numbers. it’s changing everything.
almost 60% of us colleges say they’re getting fewer applications from abroad.
and 70% of schools just stopped trying to recruit people from those “banned” countries.
it’s a huge financial hit for universities because international students pay a ton in tuition.
what critics are saying
people are saying this isn’t fair.
the report says it “undermines merit-based entry.”
basically, it doesn’t matter how good your grades are or how much money you have… if you’re from the “wrong” country, you’re probably not getting in.
what to do if you’re applying from an affected country
if you’re trying for an f-1 visa right now:
know that the scrutiny is going to be super high.
check if your country is on the “hold” list (proclamations 10949 and 10998).
document EVERYTHING. your money, your ties to home, your school info.
be ready for them to look at your social media.
talk to your school’s advisor early. they usually know what’s going on.
final thoughts
a 35% global rejection rate is a huge deal. it’s the biggest shift in ten years.
the reality is that where you’re from matters way more than it did two or three years ago.
you gotta factor that in when you’re planning your life and your money.
just a heads up: this is just general info. things change and every case is different, so definitely check the official sites or talk to a real lawyer before you do anything big. honestly.